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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."